KILO.TO & PHYS.TO

win
TSX
breakout
ETFs
commodities
Author

im@johnho.ca

Published

Friday, October 31, 2025

Abstract
Canadian Physical Gold ETFs

Setup

With the way geo-politics are going, my personal intutition was strong for finally owning some physical gold ETFs. From my agentic research both kilo.to and phys.to looked great and turns out to be pulling back a bit in the “value zone” during a strong trend on the daily chart.

Daily Chart (entry: blue, stop: red)

Weekly Chart
Figure 1: KILO.TO in two time frames

Daily Chart (entry: blue, stop: red)

Weekly Chart
Figure 2: PHYS.TO in two time frames

Entry

Suffering from some FOMO, I wanted in with $200 stake on both tickers on 2025-10-31 when I see that it’s about to cross above the fast EMA:

  • bot 100 shares of KILO.TO @ 57.90 on 2025-10-31 (stop: 56.2)
  • bot 140 shares of PHYS.TO @ 42.46 on 2025-10-31 (stop: 41.07)

since my stops were tight (using the slow EMA22), my positions had pretty decent size.

KILO.TO

PHYS.TO
Figure 3: Risk Numbers

Exit

since it was amoungst my first trades, I set partial exits at the high of 2026-10-20.

  • sold 80 shares of KILO.TO @ 63.48 on 2026-12-22 ( a 2.96:1 reward-risk trade)
  • sold 100 shares of PHYS.TO @ 46.90 on 2026-12-23 ( a 3.19:1 reward-risk trade)

which turns out to be a good move since on 2026-12-29 it had a -2ATR day.

Learning

Figure 4: KILO.TO Daily Chart, entry at blue arrow, yellow line was my exit target
Tip 1: Profit Target vs Trailing Stop
  1. using previous High as Profit Target seems to be a decent exit strategy
    • setting a stop-order, instead of a limit sell, after price reached previous high would be more consistent with the aim of “letting the winners run”
  2. adjusting the stops up after a decent size breakout1 but that would required a lot more effort watching the daily moves closely2.
  3. an alternative exit strategy that’s between [1] and [2] in terms of effort would be to adjust stop up using the slow EMA3.
    1. if your conviction for holding the stock is strong4
    2. and the trend is healthy5

Footnotes

  1. e.g. on 2026-01-28 when it gapped up would have “timed it prefectly”↩︎

  2. for the whole of Decemeber we were on an epic trip traveling thru Asia so this would not have been feasible↩︎

  3. If that was done, we would have still be in this position fully with an unrealized PnL of around 5.68:1 reward-to-risk ratio on 2026-02-13 per Figure 4 and maybe even added to the position on 2026-02-05↩︎

  4. which it is for me due to the current geo-political landscape↩︎

  5. which it also is↩︎